Saturday, May 10, 2008

Qs Weekly Update

Daily and weekly 3 linear regression (30,11,3) study above.
For the week the Qs were down .56 or 1.15%. Not bad considering the fallout in some of the other indices.(DIA -2.5%, IWM -1.5%, SPY - 1.85%)
On the daily chart the Qs are dead on the LR30 mean and downslope on the LR3. Once again traders are faced with the question is whether the Qs are at support or resistance relative to the channel. The mid panel technicals are uniformly negative and from that perspective we can expect more retracement with the lower LR30 channel (46.50) as a likely support target.
The weekly chart is a bit more optimistic as the Qs have not yet breached the upper LR30 channel while the technicals are neutral to modestly negative. Interestingly, a retracement back to the weekly LR30 mean would take the Qs to 46.50.
My bet is that we'll see that number again, but being a daytrader (for now) allows me the leisure to speculate about it without having to pay up if I'm wrong.
The A50 is showing slight weakness, having come off the highs last week, as expected. Still above the 20 DMSA . . a break below that level would be confirmation of more short term momentum down, with the 50 DMSA as intermediate support.
The A200 actually showed relative strength this week. . a bit surprising. Like the A50, the 20 DSMA has provided support since April. A break down through that level in conjunction with a break in the A50 should provide a good swing trading opportunity.
I had intended to post some TICK/NYAD correlation charts today, but have delayed that until next week while I run some backtests over the weekend.

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