Wednesday, July 18, 2007

VIX hits band; Qs surge on heavy volume

The markets have exhibited the character of New England weather lately.....if you don't like what you've got just wait a few hours. Wednesday the Qs opened at S1 (50.00), chewed down past S2 (49.76) midday and then found major buying in the last 1/2 hour to push it up to PP (50.14). Volume picked up strongly into the close and after hours saw the Qs at 50.32 to mimic Tuesday's close. Thursday's open should show carry through, but expect the unexpected as earnings reports set off market gyrations. The VIX had an almost 7% range today, imploding for the last hour and heading back towards 15 level. The TICK and NYAD did not go upslope until the last 1/2 hour, and the TRIT went upslope for the last 1/2 hour completely contrary to what I would expect. (Can anyone explain that one to me????) By complete dumb luck a friend dropped over for a visit about noon, so I missed the Qs drop through S2 (and my intent to close my longs) and by the time I returned to my desk the Qs were upslope at S2. The portfolio is still net long, 100% hedged ATM. I am looking to exit my long ATM Q calls at the open, and to repurchase at the next intraday swing low to S1 or S2.

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