Monday, September 24, 2007
Today's Qs and VIX performance were pretty much mirror images of Friday in reverse. The Qs continue to look overbought and the VIX looks oversold as it continues to hug the declining(and expanding lower band. Some strange behavior on the VIX today at 11:20 when we got a .50 gap down in 2 minutes, with just little blip in the TICK and no impact on the NYAD.
I continue to track order flow on the NYSE per my Sept 1-6 posts and note that the FICAPs have assumed a 4% larger presence in the markets over the past 2 weeks, although I'm not going to try and explain why.
A likely emerging scenario might include the VIX popping off the lower band and heading back to the 10 & 20 DSMAs in the next few days, with the markets showing some weakness and consolidation. This scneario would provide a jumping off point for an end of month rally that would carry through DOW 14,000 and Qs 52.
Althought these reversals are typically resaged by wide range bars, this market has shown itself time and time again not to be "typical", and the muliple dojis and hammers currently on display may be the tell for the next turn.
Meanwhile, I'm cautiously waiting until Thursday before getting frisky.