Thursday, May 28, 2009

INTC Butterfly

Here's another example of the butterfly setup I posted on Tuesday. In this case we're looking at INTC and a July expiration.
The reason I chose INTC for the study is reflected in the stock's conformance to the LR30 channel, which has shown a slight upslope bias over the past 2 months, but which is now riding the lower band of the channel.
The butterfly scenarios for the June expiration are pretty dismal risk/reward situations (and are not shown), but looking out another month to July presents some possibilities.
The 2 setups posted below (3 and 4) have posited 16 and 15 as possible settlement prices for July expiration, depending on your perspective on market momentum. Other higher and lower settlement targets involve a greater initial debit and proportionately less potential returns.
Playing both scenarios 3 and 4 yields the risk/reward displayed in the final lower matrix.
These are just some ideas to ponder. The goal, of course, is to find setups where the net debit is extremely low and the breath of positive payout strikes is wide.

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