Monday, July 06, 2009

Monday Forecast

Here's a snapshot of the market daily bars updated as of 8 am pst.
Last Wednesday and Thursday flashed a negative signal all around as the RSI2 (lower technical panel hit overbought levels and crossed down through critical resistance.
With the mid panel technicals now uniformly downslope but only 2 days off the zero line, I'm expecting more of the same.
While the RSI is quickly reaching oversold levels in all 4 ETFs, a quick glance at the charts shows that we typically seen bottoming and base building behavior prior to a resumption of an upswing, so that has to be factored into any optimistic views for this week's action.
Finally, the bearish channel kiss off shown by all 4 ETFs doesn't bode well with the 3, 7 &14 SMAS 0n the price chart all running downslope in sync.
If we break support from 6/23 (done already in XLE) then the next likely support level is the May lows.
We are seeing some base building as I write this, but those consolidations are at S2 levels, so not a lot to get too excited about. Today's close should be a good tell for the rest of the week, so....
Time to be cautious IMHO.

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