Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Qs and the Pivots

Dr. Brett posted a nice study today of pivot points and S&P behavior. I frankly avoid SPY and it multitude of proxies, much preferring the Qs and IWM because of the spreads, volatility and options in pennies. It's been my experience that both the Qs and IWM respond to the pivots much like magnets, with an especially high correlation of R2 and S2 pivots providing fairly low risk entries for counter trend moves when supported by confirming indicators such as the TICK, NYAD, signal line and parabolics. (Also see yesterday's post on trading Q gaps and review pivot action of the Qs, TICK and NYAD)
Today's Q behavior was typical in this regard (top chart). After opening at S1 pivot with ho-hum volume, the Qs jumped to the PP pivot, then retraced quickly to S1 again before beginning a slow ascent for the remainder of the day. The Qs did consolidate around the PP pivot for also 2 hours before breaking out and popping up to R1, where it consolidated until another breakout in the last 50 minutes, which suggested that R2 was the next target, but the TICK, NYAD, signal line and RSI&CCI (in the Qs chart study window) all suggested that the breakout was really trader gaming designed to encourage buying while the real goal of the market makers was selling. The large volume bars that followed that false breakout confirmed that the momentum into the close would be down.
Hope you caught the move.

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