Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Fractal H&S on a PP Kind of Day

This is a follow-up on my comments yesterday about a head and shoulder formation seen in a number of the generals. Above is the weekly chart of SMH, which I regard as a reliable leading indicator of Qs momentum. Perhaps a bit surprising following upbeat reports by INTC and CSCO, SMH has not been a Rotator leader recently and MSFT's upbeat report has also been met with net distribution. This may have been a case of buy the rumor, sell the news . . in which case SMH may be out of bullets . . adding fuel to a H&S argument.
Now, just for fun, below is a chart of SSO on daily bars and (I know you're going to say this) there's a inverse head and shoulders . . sometimes called a stop and squat. Truth be told, this is a pretty bullish looking chart . . unless that red resistance line turns out to mean something. Sorry I can't make a more convincing case for the bulls but I do believe the matter will be resolved one way or the other by Monday . . you heard it here first.
And, despite an anemic NYAD that pushed many issues into the red, essentially all the majors managed to follow the intraday pattern of SSO on Tuesday, which fluctuated between PP and R1 the entire session. The net skew was actually to the PP side of the band, but the good news for the bulls is that PP provided a powerful VWAP target . . an encouraging technical confirmation.
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