Thursday, November 08, 2007

Are we done yet?

As suspected, the Qs fell through the trap door at the open and never looked back. As has been noted before, when the NYAD opens at 3 (about R16) after previously closing at .14, a short is in order. The NYAD didn't disappoint and chewed all the way to the .50 level before showing any buying interest in the last hour. The TICK was similarly ambivalent and demonstrated what happens when the VIX is hitting the high 20s and outside the upper band (not shown). What happens is a TICK range on the 5 minute bars that cycles between R1 and S1, reflecting the similar fast and furious wide range bars for the equities. If days like today don't get your heart pumping then you're not paying attention or you're in shock. The TICK gave a hint of possible things to come at 13:30 as the MACD histogram crossed above the zero line. That break was quickly erased, but the interesting thing was we didn't get a new low at 14:30, instead the Qs just went into a hold pattern until the last hour, when buying finally emerged as signaled by the up slope TICK and NYAD and the positive TICK histogram. The lazy W bottoming formation looks encouraging BUT that little high volume hook down at the end of the day suggests that not everyone thinks the downdraft is over. I sold some naked puts at 13:00 and again at 14:30 but covered 10 minutes into the close just in case.

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