Topside is the weekly 3 linear regressions chart. The lower channel band has held so far, with this week producing a questionable doji pattern. If the Qs turn down at this point and head south through the lower channel, the retracement may run down to 44, a long ways off.
Historically, of course, we are in the strongest month of the year, which hasn't played out very well so far this year. The last week of the month is typically the strongest so if we can hold the line and get some traction this week or at least a modest consolidation, we may then get a surge back towards the old highs.
The lower chart is the Advanced Get daily, indicating we are coming off a wave 3 and headed up again with a 37% probability. The MACD certainly supports this notion, bouncing off the lowest reading of the year, but there have been numerous technical surprises (failures) this year, so I regard these readings with a grain of salt.
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