Friday, August 08, 2008

Pivot Envy

Three charts above are IWM, NYAD (NYSE advance/decline) and Qs on 2 minute bars.
The intersting thing here is the action of the NYAD relative to the IWM and the Qs. Price action in the ETFs is rather ambiguous about whether this rally is bound for failure, but the NYAD gives a clear signal of strength going into the last 15 minutes of the 11:00 hour.
Also supporting the bullish case is the fact that the IWMs have been bumping against the R2 pivot for the past 90 minutes. while the Qs have yet to touch that resistance level. With the NYAD on a upslope at 11:45, the probability of the Qs hitting R2 is greatly increased and a bullish position on the Qs becomes the tactical short term (scalping) play.

Here's an update of the above charts (minus the NYAD) and now in 5 minute bars so you can appreciate the commonality of the markets. The lower panel technicals are virtually identical as the markets move in lockstep. The lag in the Qs has now been eliminated with the pop to R2 mirroring the IWM. The breakout off R2 and the subsequent pullback in the first 20 minutes of 13:00 are further indications of the glue that holds this pair together and the arbitrage opportunities when divergences appear.

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