Thursday, September 25, 2008

Thursday's Hope

Like most traders, I'm basically hanging out for Friday's Senate action on the bailout. The market's managed to stay pretty much in a holding pattern for the past few days as patience is the safer course than valor. However, a lot of blog chatter has touched on Buffett's bet on GS as a positive endorsement for things likely to come. Now, ole Warren's a lot smarter (and richer) than I ever hope to be and his guiding mantra that "Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing", frequently bounces around this otherwise muddled brainpan. So, I figure maybe Buffett has an inside track on this thing and although I had expected Thursday's action to be muted, the hairy bottom that developed in the last half hour yesterday prompted me to go long some Qs OTMs before yesterday's close. That turned out to be a quick trade however, as the Qs blew through R2 and the fib100 level at 10:15 this morning and I decided to take the money and run. I'll probably re-enter at the close today as I re-up my bet, which is basically what it is, since technicals are a minor component in predicting the outcome of the ongoing and unprecedented financial crisis.

Supporting Buffett's stance is the current position of the VIX, shown in daily and weekly bars below.

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