Here's an interesting situation:
Last week Qs pivot range R4-S4 = 8.16; IWM R4-S4 = 23.76
Next week Qs pivot range R4-S4 = 25.86; IWM R4 -S4 = 32.16
This is true volatility expansion, with the Qs delta from PP to S1 now just about 3X that of last week.
Above is the 3 linear regression study (30,11,3) of the Qs daily and weekly bars.
For the week, the Qs were off $3.66 or 7.8%. That's the widest range weekly down bar all year and now that the Qs have broken through mid July support, things could get dicey. All the mid-panel daily indicators are solidly oversold, but the weekly chart is showing the probability of more of the same to come and is in a basically neutral mode. The lower LR30 channel support band is pegged at 41.77, which is S1 for the week.
Compared to the Qs, IWM looks almost bullish, with both the daily and weekly mid panel technicals chattering along on a neutral track. The caution here is most obvious on the weekly chart as IWM retraces through LR30 upper channel resistance. If things do get ugly next week and IWM starts to slide, the first target to the downside will be the LR30 mean at 68.83, a half buck below S1.
I expect the Qs pivot range to be significantly narrower next week, as the expansion demonstrated last week was extraordinary. As such, my focus will be on selling premium at every opportunity. With 14 days until expiration, I would normally expect premium decay to start accelerating in the OTMs and the dramatic jump in Qs put premium last week has only added support to my focus on the Qs next week. We shall see.