Although the technicals looked somewhat bullish on Friday, they didn't look THAT bullish. And to add insult to injury to my market weekend prognosis, the XLF did not lead the charge up, but instead lagged most of the day.Hey! it's a learning process and I actually learned a lot from today's market dynamics. The big argument against today's rally sustainability was the lack of volume, but given the lack of fade into the close, the most likely opening momentum tomorrow is, in fact, continued up. Negative earnings surprises or the usual revelation of of some new financial shenanigans could derail that momo, but today's strength was sooo unusual and big moves tend to carry overnight.
Above is an update of this week's pivots as compared with last weeks. The yellow pivots highlight the weekly high/low range for the ETFs on the left matrix. The yellow pivots on the right matrix highlight the today's high/low range for this week's pivots. Today's pivot bounces off of the PP mean strongly argue for continued bullish momentum, and to show how expanded the ranges had become, today's 936 point gain only moved 2 ETFs of our basket 1 pivot and the other 2 ETFs 1.5 pivots. This behavior actually makes sense when we examine the %range values for the 4 ETFs. The 2 ETFs with a %range 19-21 rose 1.5 pivots. The 2 ETFs with a percent range 37-39 rose 1 pivots. Today's pivot range results correspond to last week's results, but with much more drama. Current values argue for short term range contraction, in order to bring the %range values back into mean territory. Finally. . . a video link sent to me by fellow trader Dr. Carl Wyman. Because the video is an IDB product, the link will yield a video of J. Mazza (in Spanish). If you scroll down to the next video, you'll see the Oct. 1oth link to Nouriel Roubini. That's the one to check out before you get too excited about the longer term bullish prospects for the market.
3 comments:
I think that if anybody is not learning anything from these markets they need to stop trading lmao.
George,
I think there's more to it than that. A lot of good traders that I know have lost a lot of money in the past few months. These are traders with years of experience, who haven't had a losing year in the past 5, but whose accounts are now hurting. Technical analysis has been only marginally reliable for the past few months, and those who trade on a swing basis have learned some painful lessons if on the wrong side of momentum. The trick is to adapt (quickly) to changing market conditions . . the problem is no one has ever seen a market like this before, so many traders' game plans have proven ineffective. I'm sticking with day trading to manage risk exposure.
My gut tell's me that this is a great environment to day trade in. I am watching things much more more closly than I normally do because of how insane this is. Right now I am mostly cash, (92% as of right now) today I started premature, put positions on Morgan Stanley and C, I closed em out yesterday morning at a massive profit. My positions are long term like 12 months. There is so much uncertainty leading to volatility I cannot figure this market out. I think the market is gonna capitulate and there are gonna be trades with a lot of money out there but is it worth the risk I can assess. How long will it take MS to burn through this cash. Part of my rambling is I cannot figure this market out. At the bottom line I have gotten lucky with a couple of huge trades that have netted massive profits, and avoided some blow up's by taking my money and running. I really have been looking on candlestick charting and fib's in this environment, versus RSI and others. Sorry for the rambling...
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