Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Signal Confirmations

In contrast to Tuesday's go nowhere chart I thought it might be instructive to look at the types of "signal confirmations" that I mentioned were needed to trigger a trade for me.
This is Tuesday's chart of the Qs 5 minute bars and the green vertical line is our long trigger.
#1 . . the NYAD is showing a little breakout to the upside while the 3 MA signal line (3,7,14) remains solidly upslope.
#2 . . the parabolics are on a BUY on the NAD and we're well into the day at this point (11:12 pst) so the first hour caution about following the parabolics on the NYAD has been passed.
#3 . . the VXN has just crossed through the Qs price chart. These are what I call VIXEN trades and they have a very high success rate, although seldom picking absolute short term tops or bottoms.
#4 . . Qs are just breaking the R1 pivot resistance. I actually waiting until 11:15 take the trade as I wanted to see even more conformation that the Qs were going up.
#5 . . Qs are on a parabolic BUY signal
#6 . . Qs are riding nicely my double 8s channel (8 MA of the high, 8MA of the low) this is very bullish.
FOR THE EXIT..................
Overall market momentum was a bit iffy Tuesday so I was prepared to bail on this trade at the first sign of failure. That occurred at the red vertical line when. .
#7 . . Both the NYAD and the Qs parabolics fire SELL (or cover)
#8 . . Both the NYAD and Qs prices fall into the double 8s channel
This turned out to be a case of premature exit and only netted a lousy .06 so I should have stuck with it until 11:48 when I could have netted another .08.
It's a learning process.
But . . I followed the trading plan signals and the next time I may give the trade a little more room to breath. Maybe not.

1 comment:

old crow said...

Bob, Very Good info. How did you like the 07:00 Bomb Drop? Wild day, my decision point was 10:24 to walk away after missing the open ramp up.