Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Relief rally and RSI2 update

Markets went up today. . . the only bad news was the lack of convincing volume. Yeah, the VIX spiked to 38 at the open, but that's not exactly the exhaustion pattern I was looking for. How much of today's action, especially the closing hour, was short covering?. . . we'll find out quick enough and with a slug of earnings coming out tonight and Thursday, we could see a substantial retracement if the reports are grim to pitiful.
On the systems front, the RSI2 models for the Qs and the IWM are now on a BUY as of 11am today, and recalling our test model, best results derive at 6 days holding for both systems, so mark it on your calendar. I'll be posting a revised RSI2 model soon with performance results for a number of stop types, but that probably won't be until next week as I'm focused on a few other things for the remainder of this week.
Wednesdays tend to be pivot high days, so that's a bit of a caution to keep in mind.

Running around our 4 square daily Linear Regression study charts. . .
The Qs continue to hug the lower Lr30 channel
The XLF avoided kissing the channel goodbye and has now risen to LR30 mean resistance mean, which is kind of a make or break level.
The IWM is enthusiastically headed back to lower LR30 channel support, having kissed it goodbye in early July. The IWM performed almost 40% better than the Qs today and continues to be a focus of my daytrading attention as I believe it offers a better risk/reward than the Qs (at least until the lower LR30 channel becomes support again rather than resistance.)
And finally the DIA, managed to climb back to close at the LR30 mean, which has provide overhead resistance for the past 3 weeks.
In the mid technical panel all the indicators are bullish in all 4 charts, so the path of least resistance at this point is a continued rally for a few days unless, as mentioned, torpedoed by a flood of bad earnings.

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