Tuesday, September 08, 2009

Tuesday Vixology

This is an update of the VIX/Qs charts displaying the current relative position of the daily price bars on the linear regression 30 channel.
Signals are bullish on both charts, the Qs having actually reached an extended oversold condition.
The 3 day reversal of the VIX following the 9/1 pop looks eerily similar to the 3 day reversal following 8/17 and the short term technical expectation is for a continued consolidation of the VIX around the 25 level.
The VIX has ridden the rails of the LR30 channel for 2 months now, a relatively long historical period to trade within a 4 point range with only 2 significant breakouts to the upside.
At this point the safe course of action is to await the break, either up or down and then follow suit.
VIX momentum is currently downtrend and using the VIX channel to attempt forecasting market momentum for more than a few days has proven to be a fool's game in the past but IMHO a break of 41.25 in the Qs would be supportive of a renewed bull rush.

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