Thursday, October 22, 2009

PD FXY Dashboard

Here's another example of how using the PDQ Dashboard can provide forecasts for a variety of ETFs. Keep in mind that the PDQ is really a condensation of the my PairDicator Qs model (hence PDQ), so for today's post we're looking at the PD FXY Dashboard.
Using pairs for currency trading is nothing new. . there's always the Forex for those who care to venture there . . I've been there, done that and found too many broker shenanigans to keep my interest.
This is a different approach although I'd be interested to hear from active FOREX traders on how these signals align with their technicals.
As with the latest iteration of the PDQ, the optimized N (lookback days) values are presented in ascending order. . . in this case providing both a short and longer term forecast for FXY momentum.
And, just a clarification. . .although the Position may be listed as OUT there are still # Days listed. . . these are the number of days out of the trade . . so every Trade position is regarded as active.
I'm showing 2 Dashboards here. .the upper is as of Wednesday's close, the lower is as of Wednesday's open, so we can see the developing momentum in the MOMO values, the current z-score (showing proximity to z-score band reversals and the current FXY beta.
There is a little glitch with the results as seen with the case of FXE. The N values and # of trades don't reconcile and, as usual, this reflects the work in progress nature of this project. Actually, both results are valid, the problem is locking the optimization algorithm in either a long or short term mode until that model executes a P&L/R2 failure.
And you thought this trading thing was easy?

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