Monday, November 23, 2009

Monday VIXology

Just off the cuff for Monday's VIXology the charrts look long the VIX and short the Qs. The VXX, the tradeable derivative of the VIX is a bit more ambiguous, which is reflected in the signal(s) currently being generated by the new PDQ Dashboard (Lite version).
The dollar is also looking bullish via the short term technicals, although we had a close call with the last UUP Dashboard BUY, so caveat emptor on this one and the wise course of action is to either 1. Stand back until an uptrend is actually confirmed or 2. Trade small and be ready to bail on a tight stop.
As mentioned above, my continued noodling with the PDQ has led me to evolve it's format into a Dashboard with 5 pairs rather than the original 8. Through on-going backtesting I've found that using the 5 highest linearity correlation pairs produces signals just as reliable as the 8 pair model with reduced noise.
I got a bit sidetracked last week on some new refinements of the PDQ including the zero line rejection signal and never got around to the VXX/UUP study I promised earlier. I'll rectify that delay this week and also show some graphical studies of a pairs trading model that will, I venture to say, give credence to the old adage that "a picture is worth a thousand words."

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