Monday, February 22, 2010

Monday VIXology

This is a fractal view of the current VIX situation: daily, 3 day, weekly and monthly. Depending on your time frame preference, the VIX looks poised to revisit recent old lows (18) or mean revert back to short term resistance (24). Although we have multiple conflicts of LR channel slopes on the 4 charts, the mid and lower panel MoneyStream and technicals are all downslope, with the exception of the monthly chart.
What I would like to do is buy some VXX at this level as it hit an all time low on Friday (keep in mind the VXX didn't come alive until 1/30/09). What I will really do is wait for the early morning dust to settle, rerun the Rotator in real time and then reassess the wisdom of my gut feeling to buy VXX.

As forecast on Friday, the DIA did show weakness relative to the SPY and IWM as seen in the % change (yellow) column above reflecting Friday closing values. While not a significant number, the fact that the LR channel was able to detect this impending weakness is what keeps me looking at it. Also as forecast, the XLF has moved up in the ranking and now shares a very similar sort value with XLE and IWM. XLF has, of course, the highest beta of the 3 and it will be interesting to see if the dynamics of the sort ranking succeed in the coming week.

I've spent some time tweaking the Prognosticators over the weekend and have made some adjustments to the 2 real time charts, changing the focus of my attention strictly to the Qs in order to reflect the mission statement of the blog. The new fractal charts now display 2 and 10 minute bars of the Qs, having replaced the 30 minute bar chart as too slow IMHO for daytrading purposes.
Each chart displays 75 bars, reflecting the scope of the 2 minute GE VIXEN and the larger Qs charts also shown on the right panel of the blog. The Prognosticators incorporate a blend of both trending and trading range algorithms in an effort to identify trading opportunities in both modalities, while at the same time avoiding false breakouts signals.
The yellow and blue leading lines are 7 and 14 period linear regression lines respectively and I pay particular attention to intraday positions when the 7LR line and/or 14LR line pivot from upslope or downslope to a flat profile as this condition often signals an impending momentum reversal.

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