Wednesday, February 17, 2010

SMH Surge Continues

Based on Tuesday's EOD Rotator update SMH is still ranked #1. Keep in mind that the yellow column reflects % change, not absolute price change. SMH is now fast approaching the upper LR band resistance and I've lightened my long position by 50% as of yesterday's close. The prevailing momentum among many bloggers vis-a-vis the Traders Almanac is that the rest of the week will be weak. This, of course, is not a bankable risk management approach IMHO and I'm still net long, but hedged going into expiration, with one foot out the door.
An interesting development in the Rotator list is that, while the SMH made a nice power surge today, the other % change leaders, including DBC and DBA are low beta. GLD, which also made a big jump has very low beta suggesting that there are some underlying cross currents at work here and the apparent strength that we witnessed on Tuesday may be subject to some imminent reversal. For now I'll just play it day to day and focus more on daytrading setups than longer term plays.
Regarding longer term situations, the EEM is tracking perfectly in sync with the butterfly setup posted on Jan. 29th and I'll review the details more closely in tomorrow's update.
I've made some changes to the blog right panel layout, adding a Market Prognosticator which looks at 2 minute bars. The algorithm operates similar to the previously posted NYAD proxy but I've introduced some modifications to take advantage of the new, expanded version of FreeStockCharts in order to (hopefully) improve the robustness of the signal.

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