Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Qs Exit Fires

I probably should have clarified yesterday that the $.18 1/3 ATR8 stop I was applying to the Qs was a trailing stop. From an execution perspective the Qs made an intraday high of 48.40 15 minutes into the session, followed by a hairy bottom swoon to 48.23 and hour later and a gradual climb back to the daily high an hour later. A little more than 90 minutes later at 12:45 the Qs hit the magic 48.22 exit target and the position was closed. This particular Qs position was one of my few remaining open longer term positions and I am now almost entirely in cash. If I had taken the close below the 8high/8low channel back at 12:30 I could have scrounged another .08 out of the trade, but the trading plan called for 48.22 exit and I stuck with my plan.
The NYAD VIXEN setup generated a similar short signal, although it fired a bit earlier at 11:35 on both the 2 and 5 minute bars, a rather unusual coincidence. and was quickly followed by a bearish 8high/8low channel signal.
Of course the Qs surged up in the last 2 minutes and are up another dime after hours at 48.34 so I may regret my (possibly premature) exit. The good news is I can always buy at back and hopefully that will occur at a significantly lower price.

With each passing day it has become more and more difficult for me to identify even moderately attractive longer term positions. While I would prefer to be more fully invested, I'm loathe to be exposed in the face of a major market slide when, for example, GS analysts proclaim the markets to be woefully overbought. That's all it would take to drop the bulls to their knees and I want to be safe and dry if and when something like that transpires.

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