Thursday, July 29, 2010


Those who have followed the generals over the past 2 weeks may have noted that IWM has been leading the SPY in daily gains. We now have an about face occurring with the IWM leading the SPY down over the past 2 days. That weakness can be seen in absolute % change: IWM -1.74% vs. SPY -.69%. Now part of that weakness might be explained in terms of relative beta, but the situation becomes clearer when we examine the intraday charts of the 2 ETFs. Tuesday I mentioned the possible bullish effect of the PP-R1 intraday pattern. We did see a bullish follow through at Wednesday's open pushing the NYAD to it's daily high but the remainder of the day was characterized by a PP-S1 range that collapsed in the last 2 hours to an S2 level . . with IWM clearly reflecting the weaker pattern of the two, .
Those who follow the BZB 2 minute Prognosticator may have also noted that over the past 2 weeks, the closing slope of the Prognosticator has been eerily accurate in forecasting the following day's open. Not necessarily the subsequent close, but it's been spot on for the open.
Also of note: a distinctly negative performance by SMH on Wednesday . . reaching S3 levels in the closing hour . . does not bode well for the Qs short term.

No comments: