Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Another fade

This was a classic Open fade setup that I've mentioned many times before. The only chart you need to look at is the NYAD. When it opens in R16 turf, or anything above about R4, and then fades in the first 5 minutes. . .YOU NEED TO GET SHORT, or if you're long you need to get out.
Generally speaking if the NYAD fade continues past 6:38 -6:42 PST the odds strongly favor continued downside follow through.
With the Qs opening above R2, and then failing to hold at R1, the afternoon collaspse was pretty much a forgone conclusion. I didn't expect a fall all the way to S2, but we got within striking distance before a litle strength came in at the close. Afterhours the Qs were up .20, but as of this posting the Globex NSDQ100 was -75 so tomorrow's open might not be positive.
This was a wide range daily bar, running all the way from +R2 to S2 (almost) and today's action does nothing to alter the prognosis for the Qs that I posted on Saturday . . .


Always Fair and Objective said...

New reader to your blog...can you explain how you see NYAD realtime and the "R" zones you mention? Also, is it available on Bloomberg?

bzbtrader said...

The NYAD symbol (NYSE advance/decline ratio)on many platforms is $NYAD. It is a default symbol on Scbwab (see chart notes on right panel of blog)and I can watch it in any real time increment, chart it, and apply indicators (like the pivots and MACD). It can be set up on TradeStation using 2 data fields and some fairly simple code. The Pivots (R2,R1,PP,S1,S2 are also defaults with Schwab, TS and a number of other platforms. I rely heavily on the pivots for intraday trading targets because they work. I don't know about Bloomberg indicators so it's best you contact them directly.

bzbtrader said...

If you can't get pivots on your platform, you can try http://www.pivotpointcalculator.com/
Of course, you've got to enter the data manually and if you watch a bunch of stocks this can be a considerably effort.