Monday, April 14, 2008

VIX update

Upper chart is the daily VIX with the CCI, parabolics and ROC. With the VIX bouncing off the support line at 22, effective for since Jan 2008, the technicals are all in sync suggesting the next move up, with short term resistance at 26 and intermediate resistance at 30. As earnings season gets into full gear this week, the catalyst for that rise may become apparent. A few more big hits like GE and WB could inflict significant collateral damage to the markets. INTC's report on Tuesday could be pivotal.
And here's the weekly bar 3 linear regression study (30,11,3) of the VIX displaying the upslope in the VIX that began Jan 2007. With the VIX currently rubbing against the long term lower LR30 channel support and the TC technicals either neutral (MACD, MS) or oversold (TSV,RSI), our expectation increases for the VIX to retrace (at a minimum) back (up) to the LR30 mean at 28.11.

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