Tuesday, April 15, 2008

XLF Update

With some of the biggest XLF components poised to announce earnings, this might be an appropriate time to run a technical check on the XLF.
Above are the daily and weekly bar 3 linear regression studies (30,11,3). The daily chart displays the technical failure of the early April rally and the subsequent retreat of XLF back to the upper LR30 channel. The last 3 days have shown a break(down) through that channel as the XLFs move in the direction of the LR30 mean (23.50) as a first level of support. Failure of that support level would likely take the XLFs lower. . . a lot lower, as the lower LR30 channel is level with the March 17th lows of 22.27.
The weekly chart shows the XLF sitting fat on the LR30 mean, with virtually all technicals in a negative mode. LR11 and LR3 are downslope, suggesting further short term momentum.
Positive surprise XLF component earnings report may reverse this trend, but I prefer to stand back for a bit and await the next clear trend (see last chart).
Current put/call open configuration reveals only a modest put skew. The May contracts reflect an almost perfect bell curve. With the XLFs currently at 24.60, the 25 puts are the main attraction. Put/call distribution does not reveal any extreme sentiment bias at this time.
Finally, the daily AdvancedGet chart (ver7.6) with the Elliott Trigger indicator turned on. Although I find it difficult to develop an objective analysis of Elliott wave theory ( everyone seems to have legitimate argument for the precise location of Wave 1, Wave 2, etc.), I have found the Elliott Trigger indicator gives highly reliable signals when used as a trend indicator when it crosses the zero line. Reading the indicator in any other fashion is more of an art than an exercise in technical analysis, so I refrain from making any dramatic claims about its efficacy.
Nevertheless, buying on the cross above the zero line and selling on the cross below the zero line generates impressive results. The latest cross below the zero line (sell) was April 10th, and the indicator remains heading down. Reversals should be regarded as hard stops.

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