Thursday, December 04, 2008

Mean reversions

The Qs, IWM and XLF have now reverted to the LR 30 mean. XLE has slid a bit as suggested in the previous post, although IWM has not followed suit. Interestingly, XLE has the most bullish looking LR30 channel, having now moved from downslope to barely upslope, while the LR11 is now clearly upslope. XLE also has the lowest RSI2 reading, further suggesting a poised position for an upthrust, although the MACD's position argues for some caution.
In an abrupt change of character, all 4 of the basket are looking moderately bullish. If the big 3 do get their handout, the expectation is for a rally of some substance. If not. . . welcome to the next leg down. With Fridays having a recent habit of being down days, voting on the handout may be delayed until the weekend for maximum effect.

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