Monday, December 22, 2008

XLP Butterfly

Here's another example of a flat 75 day LR30 pattern that may have some potential as a butterfly play. Unfortunately, XLP shares some of the same option drawbacks as its SPDR counterpart XLU (as detailed last Friday) . . .that is, low volume, wide spreads and limited option exchange participation.
From a strictly technical standpoint, the short term chart of XLP looks almost bullish, with the envelop channel in the lower panel on an ascent and the STO and RSI poised to turn up (maybe).
Two scenarios are examined here, both with 2 strike spreads. XLP is a bit unusual in the tightness of the LR30 channel bands, which translates into an overly excessive risk/reward ratio when looking at 3 strike spacing scenarios like the XLE butterfly profiled Dec 10th.

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