Monday, June 22, 2009

Monday, Monday

At midday the markets are, uh, DOWN.
A look at my litle 4 ETF basket displays the relative performance of the major sector and shows the Qs are holding up the best, while XLE, which enjoyed a significant pre summer surge, is now settling back to that magic 47 number that's was a consistent butterfly money maker for many months.
The technicals are all in oversold or uber-oversold sold territory, so the likely expectation is for some degree of a bounce. The big concern, however, is that MoneyStream (dotted white line) is also trending down and we need to see some reversal or divergence here before putting on our longer term bullish hat again.
If selling does take hold at these levels and all the LR30 lower channels get the "goodbye kiss" we could easily see a retreat to the May support levels which could drag the Qs to 33, the IWM to 47, the XLE to 45 and the XLF to 10.50.
Today's relatively low volume may reflect the indecision in the markets, but the bearish .13 NYAD reading and consistently red rollers don't encourage buying at these levels.
As of this post (10:30 am pst) we are hitting an intraday low at the typical cycle low point of the day so the next few hours should be critical.

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