Thursday, July 12, 2007

The only thing certain in this market

I am constantly reminded that the only thing certain in this market is that anything can happen and if you are not positioned to respond to changing market dynamics then you will lose money.

Yesterday's VIX chart is a perfect case in point. Looking at the VIX daily chart we see that once the upper band has been approached, it is inevitably violated, typically on a wide range bar, followed by a wide range retracement through the bar. That pattern repeated itself today...the major difference being that the upper bollinger band was never violated yesterday. Although we did get a continued selloff of the Qs at the open down to S1, it was quickly reversed, with an eventual climb back to R1. Such is the nature of the markets. Accepting what the markets give you and tactically working those conditions is what consistently successful trading is all about (not that I'm able to pull it off as much as I would like). The portfolio is currently net long, but fully hedged with near OTM calls. To increase the near term hedge I bought slightly OTM August Qs puts at the close yesteday as the Qs/VIX both hit BB bands (shown on 10 minute charts above). This action has reduced my net theta, but my intention is to close this position, regardless of P/L, by Friday's close the theta erosion should be minimal.

No comments: