Monday, July 02, 2007

VIX update. The (14,2) bollinger band indicator for the VIX gives reliable turn signals as discussed in earlier posts. The problem is that for active traders, there aren't that many of them and the VIX spends a lot of time in the wilderness before a break to one side or the other. In times like these I will look at the weekly chart to seek clues as to the larger VIX momemtum. In this case, it looks solidly down. As we are on the first trading day of the month and pre July 4th I'm expecting an up day. The Stock Traders Almanac 2007 gives today a 20 year up day probability as follows: Dow - 76%, SPY - 76% and NASDAQ -66%. These are the highest readings for the next 10 days.

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