Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Qs plummet; VIX shows teeth

The VIX broke through the upper band and is now precisely where it was a month ago. Looking back to July 10(not a band break), June 26 and June 7 we see band breaks and moves more than 10% above the 10 day SMA typically display impressive next day reversals and quickly revert back to the 10 day SMA. VIX and MORE thinks things may be different this tme.
The Qs blew though initial support at 49.70 and had the highest volume day since June 7. After 4 down days the odds are building for a reversion pop-up to 49.70, which probably will not hold . I don't think we will get a repeat of the June 7 scenario.
The portfolio is now 80% cash.

No comments: