Thursday, July 26, 2007

Qs back to support; VIX blows up

Well that was interesting. I unloaded my overnight Qs puts a little too soon this morning, thereby missing the huge downside gains I would have otherwise enjoyed. However, I did get to spend most of the day at the dentist, ultimately ending up with a root canal. Not quite sure which experience was the most painful . . missing the market or seeing the dentist.
Qs about at 50 day MA, which they haven't seen for a while . . but that was a touch, not a close, so we may see more selling before a real reversal.
The VIX went off the charts today and is now looking seriously overbought. I couldn't' find a pattern that quite matches the current one (help . . anyone), but VIX reversals typically occur at
long, close/high bars, so the multiple falling hammers that keep creeping up has me suspicious.
The portfolio is still 80% cash although I did initiate a long call position in the IWM and Qs towards the end of the day (although my judgment was pretty clouded as a result of the extreme jaw pain I was suffering at the time).

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