Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Going with the Flow

Turns out my negative outlook for yesterday was a wee bit premature.
Hey! I said it could go either way!
And always keep in mind my Bucket List..............
What's interesting now as we progress into the week is that the VIX is clearly knocking against serious oversold levels on the daily chart, whereas, Monday's post saw the VIX daily set at the LR30 channel mean.
I'd been watching GE closely going into yesterday's open as Friday's 30 minute bars looked like a possible double bottom (Dolly) pattern.
The possibility of entering GE just prior to earnings was definitely a caution to me, but with the firing of a BUY on the NYAD at 10:18 and a GE BUY signal already underway since 10:16, I went long.
That turned out to be a good decision as the entire market surged up and GE made a nice run into the typical noon divergences.
However, always the nervous Nellie and unable to shake my continuing reservations about the validity of the rally, I exited with the parabolic Sell right at 12:00 for a respectable .42 gain and 102 minutes of exposure. Not close to my expectation of .01/minute but, really, the longer you let these things run, the less likely that level of return.
Also worthy of consideration: by noon GE had gained almost 6% off the open, a number achieved only 1% of the time, so the odds were against much of a further push for the day.
When in doubt. . get out.

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