Monday, July 27, 2009

Monday VIX Update

I've made a number of VIX related posts lately as it seems to be the subject of considerable blog chatter. My myopic thinking is that it's just a statistic that has no intrinsic value and that those venture into the blackness and actively trade this thing have my admiration.
That being said the daily and weekly charts of the VIX continue on the track outlined last week.
We are now on day 17 of the VIX cycle - -the previous 2 cycles being 15 days each.
The VIX continues to slowly ratchet down on the daily chart, currently riding below the LR30 lower channel band with divergent technical signals.
The weekly chart is not ambiguous and suggests that VIX 20 is coming sooner than later as all the technical are firmly aligned to the downside.
MSFT's dim forecast and the market strength demonstrated following the announcement are a further indication that this market is not eager to embrace the short side.
The VWAP overnight indicator closed positive for today.
As I mentioned last week, I closed most of my mid term longs on Thursday and have no open short positions.
Experience has taught me to wait for the rollover before entering short and that's my current tactic as I believe it's probably too late to go long at this point.

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