Tuesday, July 07, 2009

VIX Update

Here's a quick look at the current VIX levels on both daily and weekly bars.
I've overlaid the price chart with my usual toolbox of technical indicators to help my feeble old mind put some perspective on what's likely to happen next.
Since last Tuesday's VIX update when the VIX was riding the LR30 channel mean, it has now run back up to the upper channel band.
What's interesting, and a bit confusing, is the relationship of the LR30 channel to price action when comparing last week's chart to the current. Whereas, last week's reading of 25.79 was shown as dead on the LR30 mean, this week's view of 25.79 shows it at the lower LR30 channel band. This is, of course, the result of the changing scale that has developed within the last week. Although the behavior of the VIX relative to the channel is the same week to week, the absolute position on the channel has changed.
This same disparity in views is noted when referencing the MACD histogram, although the RSI2 remains true to form.
These variations in relative position of technical indicators over time have been explored extensively in previous posts when using the VIX or VXN in conjunction with the Qs to gauge momentum and identify high probability trade entries.
Based on this brief snapshot, it's clear that the readings of many technical indicators are both relative and dynamic and need to be carefully considered as such.
Finally, here's a very thoughtful reflection from a trader who's developed his own perspective.
It's fairly lengthy, but it's sincere and insightful for anyone wishing to become a better trader.

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