Monday, July 20, 2009

Monday Outlook

Going into this week it looks like the Qs and the IWM are the ones to watch. While all 4 of the basket are showing similar underlying technical patterns (overbought with impending rollover) the Qs and IWM are unique in that they are resting on the upward sloping LR30 channel mean while the XLF and XLE are resting on the downward sloping upper channel band.
While this is bullish overall for the Qs and IWM, we've come a long way in the last week and at some point the technicals will have to reset, so at a minimum, a narrow range week is a real possibility.
As such, from a tactical standpoint I'm looking for an SPX high of around 950 this week (close to today's high so far) and a potential low of 925.
Also note the VIX update post from Friday.
Earnings surprises of course can change everything, and quickly, but with generally muted anticipation so far, the better than expected results (however suspect) from the likes of GS have served to goose the markets higher.

No comments: