Monday, August 20, 2007

Holding pattern

The Qs showed a doji today and the VIX had a wide range close low bar at the 10 DSMA. The RSI and MACD readings of the Qs suggest continued movement towards the 10 DSMA. As mentioned previously, that goal is a pretty good bet. After that.... the games afoot.
Volume was considerably subdued, the second lowest in the past 3 weeks. The previous low volume reading (6 days ago) was also accompanied by a doji that was the harbinger of 3 dramatic down days.
The markets may find renewed strength short term, but major reversals do not typically occur in a smooth slope and action in the financials today indicate that not everyone is buying the buzz. The dreaded W bottom (or variation thereof) is a much more likely scenario so caution is advised until the market shows real momentum.

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