Tuesday, August 28, 2007

VIX back to 20 DSMA

Qs volume picked up today, but few buyers appeared as the Qs retreated from the 50 DSMA to the 10 DSMA in a pervasive selloff. Both the volume and the selling accelerated into the last 2 hours, turning parabolic for the last 30 minutes and I don't think it's over yet. Both the RSI and the MACD are poised to fall further before an oversold signal flashes and we seldom get reversals at current signal levels.
The VIX made another 15 % jump today, blowing past the 10DSMA to close above the 20 DSMA. The frequency of these high volatility 10-15% daily moves has characterized August with fully 10 of the last 20 trading days showing 10% or greater moves. The MACD is now above the zero line and headed up so VIX 30 will be the next likely target.
This was a very weak day. The NYAD flatlined along .20 for most of the day before giving up any hope of a rally 90 minutes prior to close and finishing at a dismal .15.
The TICK was similarly weak all day, staying below the 5,20,3 MACD histogram zero line for all but 20 minutes during the noon hour.

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