Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Loose Snake

Looks like the spitting cobra mentioned on Monday did get out of the bag, and it wasn't pretty. Next stop for the Qs is in the 46 range and the weak indicator signals along with the NOT oversold reading argue for that target to materialize. Whether 46 will provide support, or just a jumping off point to lower levels remains to be seen.
Contrary to the previous post suggesting expiration week might provide lower VIX readings, this has not come to pass, so far. With retail, housing, financials, energy and gold all taking major hits, it's a real leap of faith to believe the markets can turn around and hit new highs any time soon. The VIX, despite the current lofty levels, is not in overbought territory, and while continuing to give hints that a retreat to the 10DSMA is imminent, these initial spurts have turned into wide range head fakes with no indication that this pattern is about to end. I continue to sell near ATM/OTM calls on the marginal rallies and buy back on the slides, although there is not much juice left in these with 3 days to expiration..

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