Thursday, January 03, 2008

5 Days Down. . almost

Top chart is the daily; lower is 5 minute.
The Qs were down for the 5th day in a row, (until the last 5 minutes) giving a 77% chance of an up day tomorrow. The Qs certainly looked like they were moving early on, but the positive NAZ100 components were mostly of relatively low volume (ORCL was the exception). . .so minimal impact to the index totals. The NYAD and the VIX moved lockstep today and the turn at 12:30 set the tone for the rest of the day. I managed to get out of my long calls in the first 10 minutes... and then watched as the Qs churned on up to PP at 10:00 and the calls actually declined. . .weird. I'm still short the near puts into the close and although the Qs fared poorly, the puts actually fell a few cents (a good thing for me), but again weird. The Qs are now up .11 after hours. The little doji that formed on the daily chart today looks bullish going back to mid-December. I typically like to see a 3-4 bar hairy bottom (candle tails) before getting excited about the turn, but you gotta take what the market gives you and this may the start of rally (which I will look to sell ).

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