Saturday, January 19, 2008

Qs Weekly Update

All charts are 3 linear regression studies (30,11,3).
Top chart is monthly Qs.
Middle is weekly Qs.
Lower is weekly VIX.
Starting at the top, the Qs retraced to the channel mean this week. That doesn't mean the Qs are ready for a bounce. . .the 42 area is where a bounce becomes overdue. In the meantime, there may be some intermediate rallies, but with all the talking heads saying "sell the rallies", don't expect a lot of traction at these levels.
The Qs weekly is in freefall, with little technical sign of abatement.
The weekly VIX is in an interesting position, ending right on the channel mean after a pop to 29.12 earlier this week. In sync with the Qs, the VIX shows little inclination to retreat. Although the VIX got strangely comatose earlier in the week, it did show its true character on Thursday.
Without a bump to the 32.50 level, the VIX is not in overbought territory.
Current indicators suggest more downside and with most traders expecting a high volume, capitulation sell off, the bias is clearly to the short side. If you are uncomfortable with the short side, then cash is advised until there are clear signals that a rebound is in order. However, I am hard pressed to imagine a scenario where the markets rally substantially. . .there are just too many fundamental problems with economy and the likelihood of things getting worse before they get better is substantial.

No comments: