After my whining about the Qs not hitting the pivots yesterday, they got back on track, but it wasn't pretty. The lazy W pattern that the Qs displayed today could have provided a good foundation for a intermediate term bottom. Instead, the last 90 minutes saw the Qs drop all the was from R1 to S2. That's a long ways to fall in that short a period and the volume was escalating into the close, suggesting more of the same to come tomorrow. For those who follow the VIX as a inverse indicator, I suggest you take a peek at my earlier post today. . .which was made while the markets were in the green. The VIX 3 LRs study doesn't imply a bottom will develop at VIX 27.50, it just means the VIX is headed in that direction.
The Qs are now down to levels of May 2007 and just a few dimes from the August lows. Investors have seen 8 months of gains dissipate in 2 weeks. . .so you've got to ask yourself whether buying at this level is tactically prudent.
I was playing it extra cautious with the short puts I sold yesterday into the close along with a long call position on EBAY that looked promising when I put it on 10 minutes before yesterdy's close. At 10:10 today, with the Qs making a squat bar at the PP pivot and an impending medical appt. 30 minutes away, I bought back the puts and sold the calls. . .each for a measely .10 gain. I seriously debated with myself before closing the trades, since I have a bad habit of taking profits too soon and thereby cutting my profits short and bringing on heavy levels of regret and remorse ( see Dr. Brett's site for an exhaustive study of these trader foibles). Unfortunately, ( or fortunately) I didn't get back until 10 minutes before the market close and was grateful that I had indeed closed those positions, as I would have been some $800 poorer if I had left them open. Sometimes dumb luck works. I was tempted to sell the Q puts again in the last 10 minutes, since their value had increased dramatically from the morning session, but the sheer volume and virulence of the decline made me stand back as I sat with my finger on the trigger and watched the seconds tick by to the close.