Friday, January 11, 2008
Today's Qs chart was the exact opposite of yesterday's. What remained the same was the action off the pivots. A lot of technical damage to the NAZ100 leaders today drove the Qs down .94 at the close. The immediate slide to S1 after the open was a bad sign but I thought we were out of the woods at noon when I sold some OTM near puts. That didn't pan out too well and when the Qs got that squat bar going 14:00 - 14:30 you knew S2 was the next stop. Sure enough S2 got hit and I sold a few more puts (hoping the Qs wouldn't really get nasty and drop another pivot before the close). We then got a market wide reversal that carried for about 30 minutes before the obligatory fade into the close typical of Fridays. At the end of the day, my short puts were actually ahead a few cents and with weekend decay factored in, the position should be good on Monday. The technicals suggest there is still more selling to come, as there has been no high volume selling frenzy or the parabolic price capitulation characteristic of a true bottom, so my plan continues to focus on selling short term premium.