Monday, March 31, 2008

The Monday cloud at the end of the tunnel

Another narrow range day with volume continuing for the 7th day below the 10DSMA. The Qs just couldn't get traction off the PP pivot and failed to hit either R1 or S1. . . a definite sign of trader caution.
NYAD action was equally tepid and narrow range after the morning pop.
TICK behavior was a bit weird in that every breakout bar was followed by an equal and opposite bar from midday on, thereby suggesting lack of trader commitment or enthusiasm.
Although the Qs showed a net gain for the day, I'm still holding with the weekend technical forecast.
Bits and pieces:
Just a little chart to keep in the back of your mind. . . 6 months ago cash was a safe place to be. . . 3 months ago the yield had dropped to 3%, but still a relatively safe haven. . . move to present and you see how dramatically yield has collapsed and risk-free money has evaporated.
And there's more depressing news from the bio sector as new Vytorin clinical studies raise questions, MRK loses 15%, SGP gets downgraded and loses 25%. OUCH!!!! Another reason to play the indices and avoid the open manhole covers of single stocks.
A great gap fade lesson from Corey today at Afraid to Trade. Also check out his weekend update. Good stuff.

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