Monday, March 24, 2008

Monday breakout

A uniformly strong day today, with increasing volume the only missing component. Overnight the NDQ were smoking so the open at R1 was expected. Carrying over Thursday's strong close, there was no morning fade, and hence, no signal to short. the Qs continued on a tear until 12:45 and an R5 reading. . . a level of strength not seen for quite some time. The modest 1/2 pivot fade into the close gave little indication of tomorrow's likely action. Big, engulfing bars like today typically see an immediate follow through, with a subsequent fade back to mid bar levels before resuming an uptrend. This would be the entry signal we are looking for to put on short term swing trades. The unusual sky-is-falling economic reports may derail that plan, and for now, new trades are restricted to that mentioned above and opening gap fades.
In sync alignment of the VIX, TICK and NYAD today, all he way into the close. . .which was positive.
The 60 minute chart is showing the afternoon fade, which may continue into tomorrow's open. I reiterate again that daily Qs volume has been sub par for the past 2 days, which may be a clue that this rally is running out of stream. Today's breakout from near term resistance is dramatically evident in the 60 minute, and a retracement to below that previous 43.30 level would be indicative of a rally failure.

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