Thursday, March 06, 2008

More to come?

Although volume was not exceptional today, the decline in the Qs and the other indices was significant. After soaring (that's a joke) to a height of .47 early in the session, the NYAD steadily declined to a close of .13. . . a number we have noted before, and one that does not inspire buying. The last 2 5 minute bars (12M+ shares) likely foretell tomorrow's open. I still believe a test of 42 is inevitable with little positive news and few prospects to push the markets up.
The 4 square chart above shows the 3 linear regression study (30,11,3) of the major indices. Funny how they all look exactly the same. The IWM has actually held up the best recently, but that may be about to change. Despite the general perception that the Qs have not been able to hold their own against the DOW and the SPY, they are clearly the strongest of the 4 indices, still clinging to the upper LR30 channel band. Despite that upbeat note, all the charts are decidedly bearish short term. Nothing today changed my previous conclusions on the XLF Part 2 post, and some have even suggested that my target of 21 is a bit too high. My feeling on the financials is its best to stand back and stay out of the line of fire. Scalps only. . . absolutely no overnights.

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