Friday, March 14, 2008

Qs Friday recap and Weekly Update

So, after today's slide you're feeling a little bit like that donut? Unfortunately, the technical indicators are strongly hinting that there's more of the same to come. Staying out of the water for a while might be a good alternative to consider.
The A50 has turned negative again, bouncing between the 20 and 50 DSMA, but still clearly down slope.
The A200 looks even more ominous as the number has broken away from the previous 20 DMSA resistance level and continues to drift down, looking to find a new resistance level at the 10 DMSA (not shown).

The daily, weekly, monthly 3 LRs studies show the continuing erosion of the Qs, with the upper LR30 channel line providing overhead resistance for the past 2 months. The good news is that the lower channel (currently at 42) has managed to provide support. If the Qs break to downside with gusto, next stop is likely 36-37.

The VIX 3LRs studies in all three time frames continue with an upslope bias, so as much as I don't look forward to it, this is a further indication of probable market weakness.

There was considerable blog chatter this week on the inevitable bottom and the various technical and relational tells that can aid in detecting that welcome event.
Are we approaching ground zero?
Did Tuesday's 400 point jump set the stage for continuing market advance?
Wednesday's pivot high and Friday's high volume slide have caused a number of technicians to rethink the case for the bull while the ongoing fallout of looming large bank failures and escalating unemployment are guaranteed to create significant collateral damage throughout the markets for some time to come.
The next earnings season. . .only a few weeks away. . .may be the true watershed for the market.
Important technical indicators that I watch are currently negative:
The 20 DMSA is riding above the 10 DSMA
The MACD , MoneyStream and TSV are all downslope
Price dropped today on accelerating volume
The Qs are coming off an RSI overbought level
The LR30 channel is downslope
The LR11 channel is downslope
The A50 and A200 charts are downslope
Until the Qs can break the upper LR30 channel resistance and hold, I'm a believer that the trend is down.

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