Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Tuesday wrap

The only thing missing today was volume. Surges in all the indices were substantial and the closing 15 minutes was dramatically parabolic (the Qs are up another .28 after hours). In the course of one day many of the markets have gone from being oversold to being overbought.
For my money the easy play was fading the open. We had the classic NYAD in the 12s setup and that type of move is never sustainable (as mentioned before many times). The squat bar chatter around R1 for the first couple hours was a great setup for the drop back to PP, at which point I exited once the parabolics turned positive and the NYAD ceased declining. I missed the afternoon rally as I was waiting for another shorting setup. Alas, the Qs never fell below the 20 SMA for the rest of the afternoon, and although the R2 kiss in the last 30 minutes looked like it might prove a good shorting situation, I held back so as to avoid any overnight positions. A lucky move, in hindsight. This rally was overdue and the percentage of rise attributable to short covering should become evident rather quickly. The rally may continue for another day or two, at which time the Qs will be considerably overbought and I'll be looking for a regression to LR30 mean levels.

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