Monday, May 17, 2010

DBC Doldrums & XLE: The Oily Hope

Today's closing stats on the Rotator don't begin to do justice to the wild ride it took to end up here. With the NYAD plummeting out of the gate to a distinctly bearish .13 it looked like another day with blood in the streets, but then a slow grind up began and although it stumbled a few times along the way, all the majors ended up in the green. GLD was clearly stronger than NEM today (bit of an odd situation) and for a while TLT was the standout leader (again). The real star was probably SMH which took a bullish lead early on in the session and closed at the high of the day.
The hands down loser, as has been the case for a number of days, was DBC as global worries have significantly impacted commodity prices, especially metals which suffered a recent double whammy as a result of new hefty mining tax regulations in Australia and elsewhere.

Every night I routinely run through the actual charts of the Rotator components just to see if I agree with MLR 6 sort criteria ranking. Many times I don't and although I'm nearly a genius it usually turns out the next day that the software was correct and my feeble old brain was wrong . . which is why I keep looking at the Rotator.
Nevertheless, I'm a true glutton for punishment and the chart that caught my attention today was the XLE, which sure looks to be chattering against a clear lower support line. We made good money for the past 6 months playing a 57 butterfly but that position was exited a week ago . . dead on 57 and we are currently flat XLE.

My sidekick, Project Z, (shown below) was the impetus for my exit and is currently flat awaiting the next entry signal which should be a BUY unless oil really gets hammered in the next few days. Failing that, I'm of the mind that XLE will head back up to and through the 57 level . . at which time I may consider another butterfly.

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