Tuesday, May 25, 2010

GLD Poised

That nasty 80 point collapse in the last 15 minutes yesterday dropped a lot of otherwise encouraging looking charts to their knees, with most issues finishing at the low of the day and then trading lower after hours. What we're left with on the Rotator is a pretty rosy picture. Not rosy as in cheery, but rosy as is negative returns. While TLT continues to hang at rank #1, GLD was actually the best performer for those not choosing to be short outright (SH).
GLD's relative strength position can be seen in the Rotator Currency model below, where it
holds rank #2. SLV did beat out GLD yesterday but on the longer term looks less promising. GLD has retraced back down to the upsloping LR30 lower band and now looks poised to move back up to the channel mean at 119.50 and possibly higher. The mid and lower panel technicals are supporting this forecast as GLD has consistently followed through with technical upside signals in the past.
The only caution here is seen on the weekly chart (not shown) which clearly shows GLD is coming off an all time high double top formation. A somewhat similar setup back in mid 08 was followed by a pullback of about 25%, which would take GLD back down to the 95ish level. Geo-political conditions are considerably different at this point in time however so, as usual, caveat emptor.

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